Nigeria’s hopes of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup suffered another setback after the Super Eagles played a 1-1 draw against Zimbabwe on Tuesday.
The result leaves Nigeria fourth in Group C, six points behind leaders South Africa.
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Direct qualification now seems like a daunting task, as the Super Eagles must not only improve significantly but also hope that the teams ahead of them experience a major dip in form. Given the current standings, the more realistic path to qualification is through the four best runners-up route.
What Is the Four Best Runners-Up Route?
In the CAF qualification format:
The winner of each of the nine groups secures an automatic ticket to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The four best second-placed teams across all groups will advance to a CAF playoff.
The winner of this playoff will then face a team from another confederation in an intercontinental playoff for the final spot at the World Cup.
What Nigeria Needs to Qualify as a Runner-Up
1. Climbing to Second Place in Group C
Nigeria currently sits in fourth place and must overtake at least two teams to reach second.
To achieve this, the Super Eagles must win at least three of their remaining four matches. Crucial fixtures include games against South Africa and Benin, both of whom are direct competitors for second place.
2. Outperforming Other Second-Placed Teams Across Groups
Even if Nigeria finishes second in Group C, they must be among the four best second-placed teams across all nine groups.
This requires a high points total—ideally between 17 and 19 points—as several teams in other groups already have 12 points with four matches left.
Currently on seven points, Nigeria needs to:
Win all four remaining games to reach 19 points, or
Win three and draw one to reach 17 points.
Additionally, goal difference could play a crucial role in securing a top-four second-place finish.
3. Favorable Results from Other Groups
Nigeria’s chances will also depend on other second-placed teams dropping points. Keeping an eye on results across all CAF groups will be important.
Beating direct rivals like South Africa and Benin is essential—not just for points but also for boosting Nigeria’s standing against other second-placed teams.
The Challenge
While the road ahead is tough, Nigeria still has a chance to finish second in Group C and secure a strong enough record to qualify for the CAF playoff.
If they succeed, they will then compete in a playoff against other second-placed teams. The winner of that playoff will advance to the intercontinental playoff, where they will fight for Africa’s 10th and final World Cup spot.
